Kip Herriage, CEO and co-founder of Wealth Masters International, published a blog post in October 2008 with economic predictions for the following three years. His forecasts, intended to prepare members of his "wealth creation community," outlined specific shifts in unemployment and home prices by October 2011.
Wealth Masters International promotes itself as the "world's premiere wealth creation community." The company states its purpose is to help others create "maximum wealth, health and wisdom, as well as experience success as they choose to define it." Herriage’s financial outlook largely shapes the company's educational content for its members. He is often called "the Nostradamus of investing" by the organization.
Herriage's October 2008 article, titled "What the next 3 years will look like for you and everyone you know...," began with a direct message. "I'm writing this because I want you to be as prepared as possible for what is coming. The following views are my personal opinions on what I see happening," Herriage wrote. He added that most people were unaware of the situation and that Wealth Masters, founded in January 2005 with Karl, had worked to educate members for "this possibility." Herriage then declared, "Unfortunately for all of us, it's become a reality. Here's What The Next 3 Years Will Likely Look Like."
The post detailed six predictions expected to materialize by October 9, 2011. Now, more than three years past that date, the accuracy of these predictions can be assessed.
His first forecast stated, "Unemployment will rise from 6% to over 15-20%. You or people you know and care about will lose their job." While many people did lose jobs, U.S. unemployment peaked at 10.1% in October 2009, up from 6.6% in October 2008. The current U.S. unemployment rate sits at 9.1%. This figure remains significantly below the "over 15-20%" range Herriage predicted.
Herriage's second prediction concerned the housing market: "Home prices will go down for the next 3-5 years, and in some areas will drop 30-50% from current prices." Zillow's home value index shows U.S. housing prices began a dramatic decline around mid-2007. By October 2008, when Herriage made his prediction, the average house price stood at $201,000. In August of this year, the average price reached $172,600, marking a 15% drop. Some specific areas in the U.S. did experience greater declines, but this was far from the widespread housing price carnage of 25-50% drops Herriage anticipated. And given that housing prices had been